Pre-game Analysis for Baskonia – Bayern 07/02/2019

Baskonia Four Factors:

54.9% eFG 17.9% TOV 33.5% OREB 23.7% FTr

Baskonia Opponent Four Factors:

55.3% eFG 17.6% TOV 28.4% OREB 21.7% FTr

Bayern Four Factors:

55.9% eFG 15.3% TOV 28.2% OREB 21.9% FTr

Bayern Opponent Four Factors:
55.6% eFG 16.9% TOV 32.4% OREB 22.4% FTr

Baskonia and Bayern both do everything about as average as you would expect teams on the in the middle of the table to do. Besides a couple upset wins at home (Baskonia vs. CSKA Moscow, Bayern vs. Fenerbahce) and a couple upset losses on the road (Baskonia @ Buducnost, Baskonia @ Darussafaka) both clubs have generally beat the teams they’re supposed to beat and lost to the teams they’re not. Their fairly average shooting numbers from all ranges (Baskonia: 76.3% FT/54.6% 2/36.9% 3, Bayern: 77.0%/54.3%/39.1%) and similar to the numbers they give up (Baskonia: 77.2%/53.2%/38.8%, Bayern: 80.9%/57.2%/35.0%).

With both teams shooting numbers looking similar, the biggest place that Baskonia sets themselves apart is on the boards. They’re currently outrebounding opponents by 3.5 per game and scoring 1.5 more points per game while Bayern is being outrebounded by 2.8 and outscored by 0.7 on average. This battle of the boards is what will define this game. Last time these two teams faced off Bayern was able to win the battle of the boards (40-39) and the game (77-71). This was despite Vincent Poirier leading the game with 6 offensive rebounds and 11 total. If they want a chance to win the reverse fixture, Bayern must keep it respectable on the boards. Devin Booker still recovering from an ankle injury puts the onus on Derrick Williams to grab more rebounds than ever.

Hopefully, Booker will play some on Thursday night but he will almost certainly not be 100% right away. For that reason, Williams is an easy choice as Bayern’s key player in Spain.

Key players:

Bayern: Derrick Williams

The last time these two teams played Bayern knew they would have to in the battle of the boards and went big starting Booker, Barthel, and Lucic, all three of whom are listed at at least 204 cm. Sixth man Derrick Williams also played 26:46 which he didn’t match until the Round 11 game when Booker went down with his ankle injury. In the 10 games since Booker’s injury, Williams minutes have increased to 29.6 per game due in large part to Baskonia’s inability to rebound without him. Bayern is rebounding just 44.7% of available shots without Williams on the floor since Round 12 but that number jumps to 49.1% when he plays. Williams’ plus/minus of +16 was 10 points better than any of his teammates back in Round 4 and Coach Radonjic is certainly hoping for a similar performance to secure an important late season road game.

Baskonia: Shavon Shields

Shields has been a key player for Baskonia since Round 13. Despite starting 10 games in the first 12 rounds, he only played an average of 16.9 minutes a night. That has changed starting with the Round 13 game at Gran Canaria. In the latest 9 matches, Shields has played an average of 28.9 minutes per game. This is mostly been due to the numerous injuries that Baskonia has dealt with this season, most notably in Shields’ case Patricio Garino and Tornike Shengelia. However, even if Baskonia was fully healthy, a large share of minutes going to the Danish forward might boost their chances. In the last matchup, which Baskonia played at relatively full strength, Shields was +10 and gathered 4 rebounds in 17 minutes to Garino’s 2 in 20 minutes. The difference becomes much more apparent when you look at the team numbers which each player. In Garino’s 20 minutes, Baskonia was outrebounded 27-17 (58.3% DREB, 15.0% OREB) while they had a 19-11 (78.6% DREB, 50% OREB) advantage on the glass in Shields’ 17 minutes. The two played mostly complementary minutes as they never saw the court together and Baskonia had 3 rebounds (1 offensive) to Bayern’s 2 (1 offensive) in the 3 minutes without either on the court. There is still blame to be shared across the team for being outrebounded by a tradionally poor rebounding team in Bayern. Shields playing all 17 of his minutes with leading rebounder Vincent Poirier definitely contributed to his lineups’ advantage over Garino who only played 10 of 20 minutes with Poirier. However, Shields clearly impacted the game on the boards leading him to a +/- of +10, 7 points greater than any of his teammates. If Shields minutes continue as they have been, he and Poirier have a good shot to even out the season series with Bayern Thursday night.

Twitter: @andrewmastin

Email: [email protected]

Pre-game Analysis for Panathinaikos – Anadolu Efes 01/02/2019

With 10 games left in the season, every game matters for Rick Pitino’s Panathinaikos team. Currently 8-12, he will need to start stacking wins in order to qualify for the Euroleague playoffs. With just one Euroleague win away from home on the year, PAO must win every home game they can, even against a top-4 side in Efes. A loss in this round would be extra devastating considering the looming trip to face league leader Fenerbahce. Falling to 8-14 would seem to be the most likely scenario without a win on Friday, making this matchup very important for their future plans. Efes is still holding on to a position in the top 4 of the league. Taking care of business on the road against PAO would be another step in securing home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. As we look ahead to this big Round 21 matchup, I’ve used NewStats.eu to create a scouting report for both teams and hopefully get some insights on what we could see Friday night.

Panathinaikos

Offense: Good scoring team from 2 (54.5% on 42.3 2PA) but below average from 3 (30.2% on 20.7 3PA). Steady guard play limits turnovers to 11.0 per game although that number is 12.1 on the road and only 9.8 at home which is part of the reason they are scoring 84.3 ppg in home games in Euroleague this year compared to 70.3 on the road. Deep shooting remains similar, if not slightly better, on the road but 2-point attempts drop by 5 (44.8 to 39.8) while the percentage on those shots drops by 6.1% (57.4% to 51.3%) costing them an average of nearly 14 points per game so far when they leave their home arena. They are also shooting 6.2 less free throws on the road than at home which, despite an uptick in percentage, is what makes up the rest of their discrepancy in scoring numbers based on the location of the game.

Defense: Panathinaikos is currently allowing teams to shoot 37.3% from 3 on 20 attempts per game. Their defense can be exploited on this end by attacking the basket to get fouled (opponents shoot 20.6 free throws per contest) especially without a legitimate threat to block shots at the rim. They are also a team that can be exploited by crashing the glass as they tend to give up too many offensive rebounds (65.6% DREB%). Their defense will force a lot of turnovers (14.2 oTO and 7.3 STL) from every position as only Nick Calathes averages more than a steal a game (1.7). Despite the large discrepancy in scoring based on location on the offensive side, the team’s numbers remain very similar regardless of whether or not they play in their home gym.

Anadolu Efes

Offense: Efes as a team is defined by their ability to score the ball extremely efficiently from every spot (64.1% TS) shooting 42.9% from 3, 59.2% from 2 and 80.5% from the free throw line. They don’t try to crash the glass, only getting 27.2% of offensive rebounds (24.8% in the last 5 games), because they make a high enough percentage that they can trust their first shot. They shoot a lot of threes (23.2 per game) which means that shots are rarely blocked by Efes’ opponents (1.8 per game).

Defense: Efes does not play lockdown defense, they have survived despite giving up 80.2 points per game because they have the ability to score more on offense. One of Efes’ biggest problems has been their 83.4 points allowed per game on the road. This is caused by a struggle to defensive rebound (65.1%) and putting opponents at the line far too frequently (18 times per game).

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