Going in to Round 30, there are still six teams who don’t know if they’ll be in one of the last 3 playoff spots or on the outside looking in. Up-to-the-minute projections, as well as all possible scenarios can be found here. This spreadsheet will be updated during and after games to give the latest odds on each team’s chances before, during, and after their game. If you just want to know who your team needs to win tonight as you watch the games, or where it looks like they’re headed for the quarterfinals, each team’s situation entering the final round is laid out here:
Baskonia Thursday 19:00 CET
With a W: 100%
With an L: 74.1%
Baskonia is the only other team who knows for certain that all they need to do is win to guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs, a certain 6 seed in their case. But there are also two other teams who guarantee Baskonia a playoff spot just by winning: Zalgiris and Anadolu Efes. In case of defeat, Baskonia fans will quickly turn into Efes fans. Even if CSKA Moscow beats Baskonia, Baskonia would still be the first team to lock up a spot in Round 30 if Milano loses to Efes. If both Baskonia and Efes lose, Baskonia’s odds would drop all the way to 40.4%. While the Panathinaikos game has no effect on them except for seeding, a Zalgiris win is actually helpful for Baskonia as their third chance of the day to get into the playoffs. If all these games go the wrong way (Baskonia loses to CSKA, Milano beats Efes, and Madrid beats Zalgiris) Baskonia will enter Friday with just a 9.7% chance at the playoffs. Their only hope is Darussafaka beating Olympiacos. So that’s it for Baskonia. No complicated scenarios, they just need one of four games to go their way: Baskonia over CSKA Moscow, Olimpia Milano over Anadolu Efes, Zalgiris over Real Madrid, or Darussafaka over Olympiacos. None of those are sure things and none of the teams they need are even the favorite. But Baskonia just needs one game to go their way and they’ll be in. If they do lose, they would have just a 0.8% chance to lose and still get the 6 seed, which may be fine with them considering their 1-3 record against 3 seed Real Madrid across all competitions this season.
Olimpia Milano Thursday 19:30 CET
With a W: 97.8%
With an L: 0%
Although Olympiacos is in the best position of any 14 win team it’s only because Olimpia Milano is in Istanbul to play Anadolu Efes. This tough matchup has their chances at just 42.5% but a win puts that number at 97.8%. It could rise to 100% by the time their score is final as a win, combined with Baskonia losing, gives Milano a spot in the playoffs likely as the 7 seed. If Olimpia Milano gets the win but Baskonia is able to win on the road as well, Milano still has a pretty good shot to capture one of the final two playoff spots. Just like Baskonia, this situation would mean Milano just needs one of a few games to go their way to be safe: Buducnost over Panathinaikos, Fenerbahce over Maccabi Tel Aviv. The final game is Real Madrid over Zalgiris although in this case the chances are only 99%. Simply put, Milano can win and be in if Baskonia wins. If Baskonia loses, they can celebrate. If not, they can clinch if Panathinaikos gets upset but they don’t need to start worrying about a spot unless Zalgiris closes the night with a win.
Panathinaikos Thursday 20:00 CET
With a W: 100%
With an L: 63.7%
A win and you’re in. It’s that simple. Panathinaikos are one of only two bubble teams that control their destiny in Round 30. If not, chances are still at 63.7% but PAO will be completely eliminated if Milano, and Zalgiris both win on the road tonight. If Baskonia and Zalgiris were to both lose, Panathinaikos would be guaranteed a playoff spot even with a loss. Those two losing would be huge for their chances but the result of the Efes-Milano game doesn’t affect their hopes for a spot too much. However, Efes winning tonight does help PAO a lot if they prefer the 7 seed (vs. 2 seed CSKA) to the 8 seed (vs. 1 seed Fener). If PAO cannot win and Zalgiris does win, their chances will be down to 5.1% so Panathinaikos fans will have to cheer for Real Madrid. Ironically, they would be locked in to a spot already if it wasn’t for Rudy Fernandez’ insane buzzer beater last week. Panathinaikos will likely know their fate by the end of the night but we may see some seeding up for grabs depending on results of the other games.
Zalgiris Kaunas Thursday 21:00 CET
With a W: 62.9%
With an L: 4.2%
Zalgiris is the wild card in all of this. As we just saw, they have the potential to throw off a lot of team’s plans. The only 14-win team that can make it even if they lose is the team that was recently 9-15 and assumed the playoffs were a lost cause. Now, Coach Jasikevičius could be coaching in the playoffs he wasn’t sure were even plausible a few weeks back. There are some simple scenarios that put Zalgiris in the playoffs: If they win and either Milano or Panathinaikos loses, they’re in. If they lose and every other 14-win team loses (Milano, Maccabi, and Olympiacos) they’re in. Everything else is more complicated. However, they desperately need a win unless they want to watch Darussafacka play in Athens cheering for the upset. If none of those games go their way and both Milano and PAO win, Zalgiris’ only chance will be both Baskonia and Maccabi winning to create the perfect tie-breaker situation. However, counting on a recently eliminated Maccabi team playing in Istanbul against a team coached by Željko Obradović doesn’t seem like a good place to be. Zalgiris will be hoping that Efes or Buducnost can pull it out
Maccabi Tel Aviv Friday 19:45 CET
With a W: 5.2%
With an L: 0%
Maccabi is in the worst situation of any team and it’s not really close. Not only do they face a tough task as mentioned earlier, their chances are still just 5.2% if they do win. So who does Maccabi need to win to still be in the hunt when they take the court on Friday? Baskonia, Buducnost, and Real Madrid should all gain a large number of fans in Tel Aviv tonight. If all three teams win, Maccabi will be able to play tomorrow knowing that they just need to win for qualification. If one of those games doesn’t go their way, Maccabi will need to win and then have Darussafaka pull the upset against Olympiacos later on in the night. If two or three don’t go their way, all playoff hopes are lost even before shootaround before Friday’s game.
Olympiacos Friday 20:30 CET
With a W: 59.1%
With an L: 0%
Olympiacos will be watching from home tonight but there are many ways their chances could be improved or decreased by the results of the games. They’ll have to take care of business at home against Daçka for it to matter but even as injured as they are that one should be a win. So here’s the cheatsheet for Olympiacos fans: CSKA Moscow, Buducnost, and Real Madrid. Any two of those three wins and Olympiacos chances are up to at least 85% with a win, if not more. If none of those games go their way (Baskonia, Panathinaikos, amd Zalgiris win) they will be eliminated before they even get to play Friday. As it stands, Olympiacos is in the best position of any 14-win team but that could change quickly tonight.